Analysis
Caveats:
(1) This analysis was done by a human [Mark Brader], is subject to human error,
and is provided with no warranty of correctness!
(2) It is assumed that all teams contending to be in the Final
will produce Game 10 scores within 20 points of each other.
If that doesn't happen, there are additional possible outcomes.
- Despite the design of the Game 10 rematches, none of the
teams in contention for the same berth are playing each other!
So all the contingencies depend on comparing results of two or
more different games.
- MI5 are definitely in the Final for winning the Jaworski,
and are also in contention for the wild-card spot, which would
put a second Jaworski team in the Final.
- The Torquemada will be won by Suspects (who might also take
the wild-card spot) or Axxe. If Suspects beat Twisted, they
win the division. If Suspects tie Twisted, Axxe must beat
Firkins to win the division and get in the Final. If Twisted
beat Suspects, then Axxe must beat or tie Firkins to win the
division and get in the Final.
- Five of What? can get in the Final by overtaking three teams
on points. They need to simultaneously outscore MI5 by 4,
Rats by 7, and Suspects by 11. If this happens the third team
in the Final will be the Torquemada winner, either Suspects or
Axxe as detailed above.
- Otherwise, MI5 can take the wild-card berth if they simultaneously
outscore Rats by 4 and Suspects by 8 (in some unlikely cases the
required margin is 9). Then the other two teams in the Final
will be the Torquemada winner (either Suspects or Axxe), and
probably Sam's Spades. However, if MI5 do all this while losing
to On a Roll, and Naughts beat Spades, and On a Roll outscore
Spades by 2, then On a Roll will get in instead of Spades.
- Otherwise, Cellar Rats can get in the Final by the wild-card
berth if they outscore Suspects by 4. If this happens the
third team in the Final will be the Torquemada winner (either
Suspects or Axxe).
- Otherwise, Suspects take the wild-card berth. If they do this
while losing to Twisted, and Firkins beat Axxe, and Twisted
outscore Axxe by 14, then Twisted are in; otherwise Axxe are in.
The promotion/relegation slots are already settled. If no teams
enter or leave the league, then next season MI5 will be promoted
to the Torquemada Division and Forza Azzurri will be relegated to
the Jaworski. The Misplaced Modifiers will return to the Torquemada
while Footloose and Firkin Free will be setting questions.